13brv3 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2024 9:33 am
Kevin wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2024 8:19 am
17 months is getting a bit ridiculous IMHO. The reason being that people’s “life” situations can change dramatically in that amount of time. Furthermore, 17 month wait then maybe a year beyond that for assembly. If a manufacturer can’t produce a product in 17 months I’d suggest they need more help. Some clear and regular communication would go a long ways in preventing discontent, speculation and misunderstanding. That is part of what we are paying for.
Buyers are on the wrong end of the supply and demand curve right now. While these wait times and deposits aren't great, they're still far better than companies like Kitfox and Just Aircraft. I looked into both of those, and they're over 2 years out and require 50% NON-REFUNDABLE up front. They could probably require 100% up front and still have more orders than they can keep up with. Production capacity would be a fine line to walk. It's easy to think you'd just add resources, but I bet a lot of companies have gone out of business because they ramped up production for a temporary surge in orders, then lost their shirts when the orders fell off back to more steady level. Chris does seem to be playing the long game, which is good.
Personally, I'll stay committed to the Badland order, and hope it shows up close to the 10 months that was estimated. In the future, I won't sign another sales order that doesn't have a delivery date commitment. There should also be a way to allow your slot to be transferred to another customer to prevent a large loss of deposit.
I have to agree with the both of you on several issues and comments. I was initially interested in Badland aircraft when I saw the F5, the Titanium framed version. That was in March of 2021. The F5 was listed at somewhere around $34 to $38K (I think). It's been a long time, so that may be off a bit, but it was under $40K. Currently, there are only two F5's, the second kit was completed sometime around July of 2021. From my last conversation with Chris two months ago, neither are flying at this time. I didn't ask why. When I submitted my first deposit, it wasn't the full amount needed to start the kit build. I knew this and I take that into account. I was hoping that it would allow the Titanium to be purchased. The Russia invasion started in February 2022. Chris and I agreed on $10k to get the ball rolling in November 2022. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine going into full tilt and most Titanium coming from Ukraine, I knew the price was going to skyrocket, and it did. Chris told me that there was a 195% increase in the cost. That was in August 2021, and of course it has continued to climb ever since. The F5 hit $42K soon after that time. Chris suggested that I go with a 4130 frame instead. At that time he didn't have the full picture of what my flight mission was. I need/want the 30lbs less weight, so I pushed on with the F5 even with its increased price. Chris was working on getting the 4130 and Titanium material CNC cut and shipped to him ready to weld. This of course would eventually speed up production, but it caused a good 6+ months of delay getting the cuts from the supplier verified. By September 2022 there were only a few minor issues to be resolved.
I mentioned to Chris that I was retiring and moving to Florida in July of 2023, so hoping to have the kit sometime after that. This was also about the time I started looking for training. My luck was good at the time. Near Starke FL where I now reside is Holladay Aviation, and they trained ultralight flying. I contacted them and made arrangements for training. The last time I flew was in 1999 in a 152 and 182. I was ready for my practical, but life changes prevented me from testing. Namely, the FAA examiner I was scheduled with perished when an elderly pilot came in on top of the Cessna the examiner and a student pilot were in, coming in on final. Both planes went down, no survivors. I started my training over again on a move to Las Vegas just a few months after the above accident, but never did test.
I figured I needed to get Chris the full 1/2 deposit to get things rolling, so in November 2022 I added another $15K to the deposit, bringing the deposit to $25K (half the purchase price). The price had gone up. The F5 was now over $50k. This was with some changes that we had made, such as going with Oratex fabric and some other carbon fiber parts. Still, hard to swallow that increase. I had to put some restraint on myself, figuring that if the price goes up again, I'll have to bail out on this purchase. That would also mean no ultralight at all. I really want the best UL possible, but there is a limit and buying a lessor UL isn't in the plan. The F5 is currently listed on the website as not available because of supply issues.
Chris asked me to stick with him because for a short time I was looking at the Merlin Lite. A much cheaper and nice plane (not so much in looks, but performance is said to be really great.) I do like the F5 and all the Badland aircraft much more than the Merlin Lite, so I decided to stick with Chris. So that puts me with three years of interest and just shy of two years waiting for my kit build to be started. In that time I've retired, moved to Florida, started with Holiday Aviation (and dropped because they stopped UL training), purchased a house/small farm with a pole barn to do my build, and recently spoke to Chris (August 2024) about getting on the build schedule. I understand that the build of the F5 is much more difficult than for the 4130 birds, so I'm trying very hard to be patient.
Some points here are, it would be nice to have a list showing build order, so we can see where we're at on the build list, and see planes/kits move off the list. Life changes can adversely affect the purchase or cancelation for long wait times. I've had a lot of changes since my initial interest. Communication is an important part of a business. Though I know Chris and staff are very busy, I can only see a benefit of updating a build list and putting in a blurb or two on occasion. It would be good for customers to be able to see why there are delays. I get that the Russia/Ukraine war has caused delays and cost increases, but that doesn't tell me how much longer I must wait, not even an estimate. I can also understand that COVID was a major pain in the butt, along with the supply issues that it caused.
Chris also is such a perfectionist. His builds are absolutely without a doubt the best on the planet, but is that level of perfectionism hurting production? Is this perfection overkill? Some would say yes, some would say no. I like the perfection, being a perfectionist myself. However, I also have had to learn to back off a little bit because my work production was causing delays. My former bosses got figured how far they could push me where I'd say "good enough". Typically, my good enough was still far above their good enough measurement.
I've had a lot of life changes, and I'm not getting any younger. The flight missions I want to do required the F5's weight saving Titanium frame. I explained this to Chris on our last phone call and he agreed, and now understands why I need an F5. I've done the calculations and this is not an option I can change.
Peer and I started this forum to help answer questions about Badland Aircraft, to support the plane/builds, and Chris as much as possible. To some degree, I think we've helped. On the flip side is that the demand for Badland Aircraft is so large that it's causing issues for current and potential customers. As Chris told me once, the planes sell themselves, he doesn't have to do anything in that area.
Can he expand? Yes, and he has to a degree. With his 1 full-time and 1 part-time employee (who both work longer hours than they are required) the build times have been reduced. The problem is being so far behind, that playing catchup is very difficult.
My situation is worse. The F5 build requires the changing of many of the tools in the shop. Titanium is a tough metal to weld and shape. The build of an F5 takes 3 times as long as building a regular 4130 F series kit/plane. Chris could go get a loan and/or investors and hire a bunch of people to ramp up and cut build times. The problem is, as was mentioned, what happens if the bottom drops out? I've also worked for companies that went from understaffed to way over staffed (hyper growth), and it simply doesn't work. The truth is, once you get past about 8 employees, quality, and production starts to drop. Yes, production is faster than if those people weren't on board, but it's not a 1 for 1 increase. We've all worked at places where we've seen employees screw around more than they work, yet if they weren't there, our workload would increase to the point of being frustrated from the workload. So what does an entrepreneur like Chris do? Plus, are customers willing to give up the quality work that Chris insists upon for possibly questionable work? Luckily, Chris has mentioned that the two employees he has are outstanding.
For me, I've really got no choice. If I want an F5, I'm going to have to wait. I do call Chris from time to time and I bug the hell out of him about "where's my kit", and yes, we get into some arguments about it. Typically though, this passes, and we continue to try to get my F5 into production. Hum, speaking of that, it's about time for one of those phone calls
Todd